Albuquerque's Environmental Story

Educating For a Sustainable Community

Environmental Topic: Population Growth

by John Gregory, based on material by Larry Gordon

Background

Many cities, especially in the Southwest, are experiencing rapid growth. The traditional American view is that growth equals progress, and "bigger is better." This view is now rejected by many people who say that the urban problems of crime, congestion, and high taxes inevitably plague big cities. Bigger isn't necessarily better.

CENSUS POPULATIONS & PROJECTIONS
City of Albuquerque and Bernalillo County
Sources: Bureau of the Census and City of Albuquerque Planning Department

In absolute numbers, Albuquerque's population growth has continued to be substantial, and especially noticeable on the city's burgeoning west side and in the far Northeast Heights. The city grew by over 50,000 people between 1980 and 1990. Environmental impacts from the addition of this many people, representing about 20,000 additional households, obviously merit attention and study. Areas of environmental concern recently receiving increased attention include water availability, quality, and usage as well as air quality issues. A formal water conservation effort is under way by the city, and the connections between land use, transportation, and air quality are receiving increased scrutiny in local and regional planning, both by elected officials and citizen advisory groups

Growth Rate Slows

Although its growth in absolute numbers has been substantial, in percentage terms Albuquerque's growth rate has slowed considerably in recent years. As the table below shows, the annual compound growth rate for population has slowed to 1.5%. The rate is projected to be less than 1.5 % for the near to mid-range future. While in keeping with recent history, this rate will be in sharp contrast to that of earlier decades, such as the postwar years, when Albuquerque's growth rate was between 7.5% and 10.6% per year.

Half Million by 2010

In 1993 the New Mexico legislature passed the Development Fees Act, which allows municipalities and counties to enact impact fees, but which requires the generation or compilation of data related to population growth forecasts. Specifically, the act requires land use projections--what amount to assumptions--based on population growth forecasts. In late 1994, the city council adopted the land use assumptions that had been developed as a part of the process of studying and projecting development impact fees. Associated with the land use assumptions was a set of population projections for the year 2002 for the city and county combined. The numbers of the table below are based on the assumption that the adopted city/county projection (567,640 in 2002) contains an 80% city, 20% county split. The 2002 projection has been extrapolated to the year 2010. As shown in the table, if the city continues to comprise 80% of the county wide population (as has been the case for about the last 20 years), then in 2010 Albuquerque's population will have reached slightly over half a million people. Passing the half-million mark will represent not only a new threshold of population, but also a new challenge to continued community sustainability.

Options and Opinions

Discussion Questions

1. Is there an optimum size for a city? Is there an optimum size for Albuquerque?
2. Can a sense of community be retained in a large city?
3. Does a city have to be large to enjoy economic viability?
4. Can a city support facilities like cultural centers, zoos, museums, or other urban amenities without a large tax base?
5. Is there such a thing as an absolute "carrying capacity" for a city? If so, what would be Albuquerque's limiting factors?
6. What impacts does growth have on clean air, clean water, traffic and recreational areas?

Possible Solutions/Opinions

1. There is increasing citizen concern that population growth is destroying the environmental and cultural amenities that have made Albuquerque so attractive. Problems associated with population growth are creating pollution of our air, water, and soil as well as noise pollution, congestion, traffic problems, and over-use of nearly all recreation areas and facilities.
2. It is unnecessary, unfair, and economically unwise to restrict the size of a city. Albuquerque should be allowed and encouraged to grow to its full potential. Decisions should be made according to the American way of free enterprise.
3. Growth often occurs without substantially helping the poor and disadvantaged, with the additional jobs taken up by recently arrived immigrants. Part of the income gains are quickly offset by the increased cost of living that usually accompanies rapid growth.
4. Albuquerque should decide what its maximum size should be, and pass laws to enforce that limit.
5. It is a commonly accepted myth that growth is good and inevitable. Some communities have challenged this view and restricted growth through building and zoning codes, land use, restrictions on sewer connections, opposition to bond issues which subsidize growth and developers, equitable application of taxes, and public opinion.
6. Growth should be controlled through planning and through ensuring that it takes place in certain geographical areas only. Open space should be provided for, further urban sprawl should be avoided, and growth should not put a severe strain on any existing parts of the city.
7. There is no such thing as an optimum size for Albuquerque or any other city.

Activities

1. Discuss the differences between linear and exponential growth. How are population growth rates determined? What is Albuquerque's growth rate? How does this figure compare with the national average? How does it compare with densely populated urban areas? How does it compare with the world's growth rate? Explain.
2. Graph the growth of Albuquerque's population during the past two decades. Include the projection for the years 2000 and 2010 from the table below. Predict Albuquerque's population in 2020, based on this graph. Using this prediction, list the demands that will be placed on the community to provide people's needs and wants. How well will Albuquerque be able to meet these demands?
3. Select a Southwestern city such as Denver or Salt Lake City. Don't tell students the name of the city. Make blank maps for them. List important historical facts about the unnamed city. Predict what the city would look like with its present population. Investigate water availability, transportation systems, and density of population. Finally, compare the actual city and with Albuquerque.
4. Discuss the following quotation from Aristotle: "Experience shows that a very populous city can rarely, if ever, be well governed. To the size of states there is a limit, as there is to other things (plants, animals, implements), for none of these retain their natural power when they are too large or too small." To what cities was Aristotle referring? What was the fate of these cities? Should the population of a city be controlled? If so, how should its size be determined? Who should make the determination? If the size of cities is restricted, how will the increase in the world's population be accommodated? What are "New Towns," and how are they started? What can be done about the world's population explosion?
5. What impact has growth already had on the quality of our air, our ground water, crime rate, and congestion of our streets and recreational areas?
6. What measures could be taken to restrict growth in the Albuquerque area?

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Copyright © 2008, Friends of Albuquerque's Environmental Story